Head of Economic Outlook Division, Monetary Analysis Directorate

City Of London, England, United Kingdom

12/13/2024

We are running a pooled recruitment campaign for three roles as part of the Bank's Monetary Policy Transformation programme: Head of International Forecasting and Modelling Transformation, Head of Economic Outlook Division, and Head of Macro Model Development Division.

Please note that the Head of Transformation Delivery Division role is not included in the pooled recruitment campaign process for the roles within the Bank's Monetary Policy Transformation programme. If you are interested in the Head of Transformation Coordination Division role, you will need to submit a separate application.

If you are interested in more than one of the pooled campaign positions, you do not need to submit separate applications; however, please clearly indicate which role(s) you wish to be considered for in your application

As part of this campaign, we may also consider creating additional roles in the future, particularly where these roles are critical for securing specialised technical skills essential to the success of the transformation programme or to address any vacancies in MA and ID supporting monetary policy that may arise through this process. We encourage all interested candidates to express their interest through this process.

Department description

Monetary Analysis provides the core analytical underpinning for the setting of monetary policy by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

This role is to lead a new division that will support the MPC by helping it reach its view on the outlook for the UK economy. Economic Outlook Division (EOD) will do this by interrogating models that shed light on how different parts of the economy behave and interact, using these models in combination to build forecasts and scenarios. The division will also have a focus on learning from regular forecast evaluation and it will underpin all its tasks with specialist research in forecasting methods.

Role description

This role will oversee the Bank's macroeconomic forecasting work which underpins the policy advice given to the MPC. Previously part of the Monetary Policy Outlook Division, this division is being newly formed as part of the wider programme of Monetary Policy Transformation to support the Bank's response to the Bernanke Review. The existing forecasting function will seed the new Economic Outlook Division and will be strengthened with additional resources to support expert forecast evaluation and effective processes and will also take on responsibility for scenario design and building. The new forecast process envisaged in Monetary Policy Transformation will also be designed and implemented by this division.

As a senior leader in the key areas of the Bank supporting monetary policy, you will have the opportunity to oversee transformational initiatives that define, and support, an approach to monetary policy making that is fit for the future. These newly established roles reflect the Bank's commitment to respond fully to the recommendations of the Bernanke Review, and so help the Bank to:

(i) Modernise and develop "close to the frontier" capabilities in terms of the Bank's processes, expertise, modelling and data infrastructure.

(ii) Build effective mechanisms for continuous improvement, to help stay close to the frontier of monetary policymaking internationally.

(iii) Leverage those capabilities, to deliver more transparent communications and support monetary policymaking in a wide range of circumstances, including heightened uncertainty, large shocks, and structural change.

The job involves:

• Establishing a new division of c30 people, bringing in the right technical skills (focusing in particular on forecasting and research) and leading the division in a way that maximises its impact, fostering a culture of intellectual curiosity, empowerment and inclusion.
• You will be responsible for establishing the division's structure and staffing to effectively achieve its objectives. While some team members may already be in place at the division's inception, having transferred as part of the area's restructuring, you will oversee the overall organisation and alignment of the team.
• Overseeing the construction of the MPC's quarterly forecast which underpins advice to MPC, as well as designing and building the scenarios MPC commission alongside the central forecast.
• Steering the discussion of the analysis and conclusions with MPC.
• Liaising with MPC members as key stakeholders, building support for divisional work priorities, establishing MPC members own priorities/interests, balancing the needs of different MPC members, and identifying how to use divisional resources as a result.
• Supporting Monetary Policy Transformation, by overseeing the design and implementation of the forecast and scenario process and providing quality assurance of outputs.
• Playing a central role in implementing MA's strategy for diversity and inclusion leading in a manner which is human, humble and in step with the changing world, fostering a kind, inclusive and open environment for discussion across the Directorate.
• Contributing to the broader running of MA as part of its leadership team, implementing central initiatives, setting local policy and work priorities.

Minimum (essential) criteria:

• The ability to build, manage and lead diverse and inclusive teams, including through providing excellent feedback and investing in others.
• A strong background in macroeconomics, with the ability to oversee the technical work of others.
• The ability to provide thought leadership to effectively deliver a programme of work through others and challenge where appropriate.
• The desire and ability to develop effective relationships with a diverse range of stakeholders, across all levels of seniority.
• An ability to communicate clearly and convincingly by distilling complex issues into their essentials (both in writing and verbally).
• A demonstrated commitment to diversity and inclusion.

Desirable criteria:

• Strategic leadership skills to establish a clear vision and to locate the work of the division in the broader monetary policy environment.
• Deep expertise in forecast production/oversight.

Our Approach to Inclusion

The Bank values diversity and inclusion - we want to reflect the society we serve; we want the best people to work for us and we want our workplace to be inclusive. We are an equal opportunities employer and welcome applications from all qualified persons.

This role is open to job shares, flexible and part-time working patterns. There are a number of senior roles in the areas supporting monetary policy that are filled by job shares or individuals working flexibly and we have a good track record of making these working arrangements a success.

For most roles where work can be carried out at home, we aim for colleagues to spend half of their time in the office, with a minimum of 40% per month. Subject to that minimum requirement, individuals and managers should work together to find what works best for them, their team and stakeholders.
Finally, we're proud to be a member of the Disability Confident Scheme. If you wish to apply under this scheme, you should check the box in the 'Candidate Personal Information' under the 'Disability Confident Scheme' section of the application.

How to apply

Please apply online, ensuring that you complete your work history and answer ALL the application questions fully and in detail as your application will not be considered if all mandatory questions are not fully completed.

A full description of the selection process, as part of a wider information pack, will be shared with candidates who progress to first interview.

We expect to be able to inform those candidates who are advancing to first interview stage by the end of January 2025.

Salary and Benefits Information
The position offers a competitive salary.
In addition, we also offer a comprehensive benefits package as detailed below:

• A non-contributory, career average pension giving you a guaranteed retirement benefit of 1/95th of your annual salary for every year worked. There is the option to increase your pension (to 1/50th) or decrease (to 1/120th) in exchange for salary through our flexible benefits programme each year.
• A discretionary performance award based on a current award pool.
• A 8% benefits allowance with the option to take as salary or purchase a wide range of flexible benefits.
• 26 days' annual leave with option to buy up to 12 additional days through flexible benefits.
• Private medical insurance and income protection.
  
  

National Security Vetting Process
Employment in this role will be subject to the National Security Vetting clearance process (and typically can take between 6 to 12 weeks post offer) and the passing of additional Bank security checks in accordance with the Bank policy. Further information regarding the vetting and security clearance requirements for the role will be provided to the successful applicant, and information about how the Bank processes personal data for these purposes, is set out in the Bank's Privacy Notice.